🔗 Share this article

Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement wins the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or just the biggest upset.

But the current field is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime also-rans rising collectively. Under an typical season, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff blend of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

Still